迈博汇金投资博客 http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/ 投资，是一种生活态度 迈博汇金 迈博汇金 【股市下午茶】联通建议换股合并网通 http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3542230.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=2><B><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">【联通建议换股合并网通】</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></FONT></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=2><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 中国联通表示，建议以换股方式与网通合并，并估计与网通的合并完成后，经扩大集团将获发</SPAN><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chmetcnv w:st="on" TCSC="0" NumberType="1" Negative="False" HasSpace="False" SourceValue="3" UnitName="g"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3G</FONT></SPAN></st1:chmetcnv><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">牌照。基于建议合并的结果，预期经扩大集团的移动业务资本开支将极为巨大，并可能于</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2009</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">及</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2010</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年达</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元人民币。</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><FONT size=2><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">当联通与网通合并后，公司中文名称将由</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">‘</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">中国联通股份有限公司</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">’</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，更改为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">‘</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">中国联合网络通信</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">香港</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">股份有限公司</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">’</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。网通将成为联通的全资附属公司，而网通的财务报表将与联通的财务报表合并。为确保经扩大集团对于房屋建筑物及固网通讯设备所采纳的会计政策一致性，以及为加强与其他固定电话营运商所采纳的会计政策的可比性，联通董事会已批准更改联通集团会计政策，包括联通的房屋建筑物将按历史成本</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">减累计折旧及累计减值亏损</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">而非按重估价值列帐，以及联通的长途、数据及互联网业务的通讯设备将按重估价值而非按历史成本</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">减累计折旧及累计减值亏损</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">列帐。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=2>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=2><st1:PersonName w:st="on" ProductID="国泰"><B><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">国泰</SPAN></B></st1:PersonName><B><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">君安</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">-</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">宏观策略与组合投资</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></FONT></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><FONT size=2>一：宏观策略、假定与仓位决策</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR></SPAN><FONT size=2><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&nbsp;&nbsp; 本期为第一期，我们给出宏观策略的基本假定，并且对市场未来一段时间走势进行初步判断，然后确定投资组合仓位情况，在以后各期，在对新的国内外宏观市场信息流进行分析的情况下，我们将对宏观策略的假定进行微调（修正）或者大调（认错）。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><FONT size=2>二：行业公司分析与评级</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR></SPAN><FONT size=2><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&nbsp;&nbsp; 第二部分将分为三小节，第一小节是行业配置建议及其调整，第二小节是我们通过阅读各类行业公司报告以及和行业研究员交流对上市公司形成观点，然后判断哪些股票能够进入投资股票池（第一期暂无），第三小节是投资股票池及其维护（调入和调出）。本次，仅给出初始的行业配置和投资股票池，未来我们将逐渐修正和调整。投资股票池股票目前为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">50&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">只，均为大盘股或者行业龙头，以后逐渐修正。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><FONT size=2>三：投资组合操作与追踪</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR></SPAN><FONT size=2><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&nbsp;&nbsp; 我们采取宏观策略决定仓位，逻辑投资决定选股的方法进行投资。关于组合，初始资金假定</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。在投资组合构建上，核心股票仓位在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">－</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">30</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">％，策略股票仓位在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">－</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">60</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">％，交易股票仓位在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">0</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">－</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">％左右。</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><BR></SPAN><FONT size=2><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">考虑到目前指数下跌到我们设定的振荡区间下限，我们将逐渐开始建立要求的仓位。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=2>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=2>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=2><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="13" Month="8" Year="2008"><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106981" target=_blank>8月13日国际金融市场收市一览 石油、有色金属上涨</A></FONT></SPAN></B></st1:chsdate></FONT></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman"><FONT size=2><o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=2><B><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106980" target=_blank>货币政策基调或不改 从紧力度不会加大</A></SPAN></B></FONT></P></DIV>]]> 星期四, 14 八月 2008 06:58:30 GMT http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3542230.html 2008-08-14T06:58:30Z 股市内幕资讯 http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3541942.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P style="TEXT-INDENT: 2em" align=center><FONT face=楷体_GB2312 color=#3366ff size=4><STRONG>股市内幕资讯</STRONG></FONT></P> <P style="TEXT-INDENT: 2em" align=left><FONT face=宋体 color=#ff0000 size=2><STRONG><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106967" target=_blank><FONT face=宋体 color=#ff0000 size=2><STRONG>【</STRONG></FONT></A><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106967"><FONT face=宋体 color=#ff0000 size=2><STRONG>年内最重要机会或即将来临</STRONG></FONT></A><STRONG><FONT face=宋体 color=#ff0000 size=2>】</FONT></STRONG></A></STRONG></FONT></P> <P style="TEXT-INDENT: 2em">近日股指连续破位重挫，并创出年内新低。针对市场诟病的维稳"雷声大，雨点小"，没有实际政策出台，京城某私募基金代言人认为，如果管理层计划在奥运期间出台救市措施，之前就不会大呼"维稳"，反倒是现在股市连续大跌、趋势悲观的情况下，"维稳"可能会有真实意义。现在各行各业把奥运会当成举国最重大的事件，证券行业不可能没有准备，由于我国证券体制和体育体制一样是举国体制，一旦市场出现微妙或者比较危险的走势，金融机构是有能力维持市场稳定的。</P> <P style="TEXT-INDENT: 2em">由于技术形态已经破位，多数人认为向下趋势难以改变，但是该私募基金代言人认为政府的思路具有反向特点，管理层并不会从技术上做过多的分析，最关心的是市场人心稳不稳定，投资者投资心态是怎样的，对心理指标可能更关注一些。由于现在心理指标达到最坏的地步，如果管理层真的要发力的话，扭转市场趋势，特别是阶段市场趋势还是非常容易的。</P> <P style="TEXT-INDENT: 2em">目前的趋势是大跌之后的惯性下挫，已经跌过头了，市场需要平衡，来寻找多空双方均衡区域。作为投资者应如何把握信息导向和指标？一些特殊的消息面出来需要注意，比如李荣融召开特殊的记者招待会，证券监管部门领导或者更高级别领导的讲话，都会出现一些征兆。机构投资者可能比较注意大盘指标股的动向，如中石油、工商银行等股票出现的扫盘信号。作为中小投资者，目前重要的是看市场成交量的变化，成交量急于放大，市场走势比较强的话，会是一个比较好的信号。</P> <P style="TEXT-INDENT: 2em">&nbsp;</P> <P style="TEXT-INDENT: 2em">&nbsp;</P> <P style="TEXT-INDENT: 2em"><FONT size=2><STRONG><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106956" target=_blank><FONT color=#ff0000 size=2><STRONG>A股近似前四轮熊市大底</STRONG></FONT></A></STRONG></FONT></P> <P style="TEXT-INDENT: 2em"><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106960" target=_blank><STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000 size=2>逾400只绩优股错杀 钢铁地产中小板被低估</FONT></STRONG></A></P> <P style="TEXT-INDENT: 2em"><FONT size=2><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106982" target=_blank><FONT color=#ff0000 size=2><STRONG>美证交会计划永久限制裸卖空</STRONG></FONT></A></FONT></P></DIV>]]> 星期四, 14 八月 2008 05:26:31 GMT http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3541942.html 2008-08-14T05:26:31Z 股市早早报 http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3541152.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <DIV style="BORDER-RIGHT: #cccccc 1pt solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; BACKGROUND: #f9f9f9; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-element: para-border-div; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCCC .5pt"> <P style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; BACKGROUND: #f9f9f9; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; TEXT-ALIGN: center; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCCC .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm" align=center><STRONG><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: #0033ff; FONT-FAMILY: 楷体_GB2312; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">股市早早报</SPAN></STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; BACKGROUND: #f9f9f9; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCCC .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm"><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106789" target=_blank><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>中金公司</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: red; TEXT-DECORATION: none; text-underline: none">-</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>上半年房地产投资高增长解读</SPAN></SPAN></A></SPAN></STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; BACKGROUND: #f9f9f9; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCCC .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm"><FONT face=宋体><FONT color=#50321e><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana">焦点问题讨论：上半年地产投资额高增长背后</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></FONT></P> <P style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; BACKGROUND: #f9f9f9; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCCC .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm"><FONT color=#50321e><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana"><FONT face=宋体>投资额增速将逐步回落：上半年房地产投资额增速为</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">33.5%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana"><FONT face=宋体>，高于去年同期</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">5&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana"><FONT face=宋体>个百分点，是在信贷紧缩，商品房销售</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">/</SPAN><FONT face=宋体><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana">预售疲软以及土地市场低迷的情况下出现的，我们分析认为原因有三：</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt">①</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana">价格</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt">②</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana">翘尾因素</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt">③</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana">开发商资金并非十分紧张。预计下半年投资额增速将逐步回落，将延续至</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">09</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana"><FONT face=宋体>年</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">...<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P> <P style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; BACKGROUND: #f9f9f9; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCCC .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><FONT color=#50321e>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P> <P style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; BACKGROUND: #f9f9f9; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCCC .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm"><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106955" target=_blank><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>扭转困局，需要什么样的拯救</SPAN></SPAN></A></SPAN></STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; BACKGROUND: #f9f9f9; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCCC .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm"><FONT color=#50321e><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana"><FONT face=宋体>不少认为，加强制度建设、加强上市公司的监管，是维持市场长期稳定发展的重要战略。客观而言，这种观点是值得肯定的；但是，这里面有急缓的问题。在当前市场的急救关头，采取美国式的救市方式是正确的，也是必要的。正如最近一部电影里的对白一样，都没有饭吃了，还读什么书呢？</FONT></SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana"><FONT face=宋体 color=#50321e>　　那么，当前市场困局的死结在哪里呢？因素应该是多方面的，例如２年多的大牛市氛围，催生了较大的资产泡沫；例如让市场闻风色变的非流通解禁如期而至；例如宏观经济面临拐点的可能性较大。</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><BR></SPAN><FONT face=宋体><FONT color=#50321e><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana">　　但是，重要的因素之一应该是限售股解禁．．．</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></FONT></P> <P style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; BACKGROUND: #f9f9f9; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCCC .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><FONT color=#50321e>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P> <P style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; BACKGROUND: #f9f9f9; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCCC .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106957" target=_blank><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>历史大底屡次被抄背后：</SPAN></SPAN></STRONG><STRONG><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; text-underline: none">QFII</SPAN></STRONG><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>的两面三刀</SPAN></SPAN></STRONG></A><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; BACKGROUND: #f9f9f9; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCCC .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106958" target=_blank><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>机构抄底</SPAN></SPAN></STRONG><STRONG><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; text-underline: none">“</SPAN></STRONG><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>股市三宝</SPAN></SPAN></STRONG><STRONG><SPAN style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; text-underline: none">” 74</SPAN></STRONG><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>亿资金砸向金融股</SPAN></SPAN></STRONG></A><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P style="BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0cm; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0cm; BACKGROUND: #f9f9f9; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-right-alt: solid #CCCCCC .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106959" target=_blank><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>商业零售利润稳增</SPAN></SPAN></STRONG><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US> </SPAN></SPAN></STRONG><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; TEXT-DECORATION: none; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; text-underline: none"><SPAN lang=EN-US>成防通胀最佳避风港</SPAN></SPAN></STRONG></A><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>]]> 星期四, 14 八月 2008 02:17:10 GMT http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3541152.html 2008-08-14T02:17:10Z 股市下午茶 http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3537248.html <![CDATA[ <P><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 24px" color=#ff0000><STRONG>股市下午茶</STRONG></FONT></P> <P><STRONG><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 18px" color=#0033ff>1、&nbsp;&nbsp; 美元大反弹</FONT></STRONG></P> <P><FONT color=#000000>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 美元正在反弹，这本应是个好消息，但现在看来却是个坏消息。<BR>　　过去一个月美元兑欧元反弹了将近7%；周一，欧元兑美元自今年2月以来首次收于1.50美元下方。<BR>　　美元兑欧元则在将近两年的时间里首次突破了200日移动均线，长久以来的下行轨迹一举得到扭转，可能已吹响了继续上行的冲锋号。<BR>　　美元兑6种主要货币的一篮子汇率也回升了6%左右。<BR>　　若美元能延续回升势头，则可增强美国消费者的购买力，缓解通货膨胀忧虑，进而减轻美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)的加息压力。但另一方面，美元反弹也会威胁到这些天来美国经济和企业盈利方面为数不多的几个亮点之一：出口行业。<BR>　　美元走软使得美国商品更加便宜，增强了对海外消费者的吸引力，从而有助于美国缩小贸易逆差。<BR>　　相应地，这也帮助美国国内生产总值(GDP)今年保持了正增长。<BR>　　美国商务部(Commerce&nbsp;&nbsp;Department)定于周二早间公布6月份贸易数据。由于石油进口价格飙升，当月贸易逆差可能会扩大；经济学家的普遍预期是，6月份贸易逆差将从5月份的大约600亿美元扩大至620亿美元。<BR>　　如果不是美元走软，这一逆差还有可能更大。<BR>　　美元疲软提振了美国出口商以及可口可乐(Coca-Cola)与麦当劳(McDonalds)等跨国公司的收益，因为美元贬值放大了这些公司的海外收益。出口商和跨国公司的良好表现支撑了除金融行业外标准普尔500指数成份股的收益增长，并阻止了股价进一步下挫。<BR>　　尽管近期有所回升，但美元显然仍处于低谷；过去6年左右的时间，美元兑主要贸易伙伴的货币贬值了37%。要收复这些失地可能需要数年时间。要使积重难返的贸易趋势出现逆转，美元还需要更为显著的反弹。<BR>　　野村证券(Nomura&nbsp;&nbsp;Securities)首席经济学家大卫莱斯勒(David&nbsp;&nbsp;Resler)表示，美元回升要对部分经济数据产生影响至少需要一年的时间，而且可能需要比目前更明显的升值幅度。<BR>　　短期来看，较之美元走势本身，美元回升的缘由可能对经济和企业收益具有更为重要的意义。<BR>　　如果投资者买入美元是因为预见到美国经济即将复苏，那倒是个好迹象。<BR>　　但情况并不是这样。<BR>　　这些投资者推动美元兑其他货币回升，是因为经济危机的阴云正蔓延至整个世界。<BR>　　这对美国出口或跨国公司的收益可不是好兆头。<BR>　　花旗集团(Citigroup)经济学家史蒂文维廷(Steven&nbsp;&nbsp;Wieting)说，如果你在海外赚不到钱，即使汇率有利你也没钱可以汇回国内。</FONT></P> <P><B><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106554"><FONT color=#000000>http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106554</FONT></A></B></P> <P><B><FONT color=#000000></FONT></B>&nbsp;</P> <P><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT color=#0033ff><B>2、&nbsp;&nbsp;</B> <B>失守</B><B>2500</B><B>：热钱撤退是暴跌罪魁祸首</B></FONT></FONT></P> <P><FONT color=#000000>上周五和本周一，大盘在两个交易日内连破2700点、2600点和2500点三大整数关口，下跌的速度大大超过了市场的预期。<BR>　　就在A股暴跌的同时，B股在以更为惊人的速度下行，上证B指两天重挫16.6%，接近半数的B股出现连续跌停的走势。就在A股、B股频频告急之时，以美股为代表的外围股市却凯歌高奏，纷纷收出长阳。<BR>　　究竟是什么原因导致A股如此暴跌？究竟是谁在2500点大肆做空？<BR>　　真相调查<BR>　　从A股连续暴跌的原因来看，主要有两方面的做空因素，一是来自于资金方面的，QFII的集中抛售让本已脆弱的股价承受更大的压力；另一方面是来自于消息面的，刚刚公布的7月PPI数据超出市场预期，再给低迷的市场人气以沉重打击。　<BR>　　因素一：QFII多翻空　5天净卖出8亿A股　<BR>　　QFII向来以精准把握大市为大家所称道，在高位能够及时减仓，兑现利润，在低位也常常能把握反弹行情。从交易数据来看，QFII在沪指下跌到3000多点时多次加仓，上交所提供的交易数据证明QFII对今年的A股市场整体还是看多的。<BR>　　但是最近几个交易日，QFII开始翻空，大举卖出股票，最近A股的大跌，QFII的“功劳”就不少。<BR>　　QFII席位大肆做空<BR>　　QFII云集最多的地方是中金公司旗下的以上海淮海中路营业部为代表的营业部。<BR>　　上证所数据显示从8月1日到8月7日期间，卖出股票总额超过8亿元。<BR>　　其中卖出最多的是兴业银行，卖出总额为3.24亿元，仅在8月1日一天对该股的卖出总额就超过了2亿元。卖出总额排在第二位的是中国人寿，总额达到了3.12亿元，卖出较为集中的是8月1日和8月6日，分别卖出0.89亿元、0.98亿元。<BR>　　另外，卖出中国远洋、中金黄金、张江高科、豫园商城、振华港机、招商银行的数量也较大。<BR>　　另外一个重要的QFII扎堆的营业部申银万国上海新昌路营业部，虽然没有大规模地卖出，但与以往净买入的情况也完全不同，总体来看卖出力量也要超过买入。<BR>　　还有一个特殊的席位瑞银总部营业部，最近的异常动作也值得投资者高度关注，传闻其“背后”有QFII活动的痕迹。从8月开始也是大举卖出，比如卖出中国平安1.15亿元、卖出兴业银行0.6亿元，除此之外，卖出数量较大的有中信证券、中国船舶、新世界等。<BR>　　总体来看，QFII最近几个交易日成为了A股做空的主要力量，在市场人气极度低迷的状况下，只要机构稍有动作就会给大盘带来“致命”打击，况且是实力雄厚的QFII，他们的一举一动对其他机构投资者的操作具有启示效应。<BR>　　业内人士指出，QFII大举卖票的时期，国际金融市场发生了一件大事，就是美元的暴涨，两者之间很可能有密切的联系，正是因为美元有可能进入中长期的升值周期，导致国际资本撤出新兴市场，集中流向美国。</FONT></P> <P><B><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106552"><FONT color=#000000>http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106552</FONT></A></B></P> <P><B><FONT color=#0033cc></FONT></B>&nbsp;</P> <P><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT color=#0033cc><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><B>3、国际投行对</B><B>7</B><B>月份</B><B>CPI</B><B>数据的看法</B></FONT></FONT></FONT></P> <P><FONT color=#000000><STRONG>高盛：中国通胀降温&nbsp;&nbsp;但未来趋势还取决于政策</STRONG><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;高盛(Goldman&nbsp;&nbsp;Sachs)经济学家表示，虽然中国7月份CPI升幅缩小，但中国未来的通货膨胀形势仍取决于政策立场。最新数据显示，中国7月份CPI上升6.3%，升幅低于6月份的7.1%，为年内最低升幅。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;高盛表示，如果中国央行能够控制广义货币供应量的增长，则CPI升幅将继续减小，PPI加速上升的势头也会在未来几个月得以扭转；但过早放松货币政策将使中国通货膨胀是否见顶受到质疑。<BR><BR><STRONG>摩根士丹利：中国CPI增速放缓或推动电价上调</STRONG><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;中国7月份消费者价格(CPI)指数增幅下降反映出6月份电价上调对该指数影响不大，从而或将推动政府在北京奥运会结束后进一步上调电价，摩根士丹利(Morgan&nbsp;&nbsp;Stanley)经济学家王庆表示。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;他补充称，生产者价格指数强劲增长推动消费者价格指数走高的威胁非常有限﹔来自下游企业的竞争使生产者无法转嫁高企的价格。中国经济调整的方式就是优胜劣汰。中国7月份CPI较上年同期提高了6.3%，预期为提高6.6%，6月份CPI较上年同期提高了7.1%。<BR></FONT></P> <P><FONT color=#000000><STRONG>&nbsp;摩根大通：中国出口仍具有竞争力</STRONG><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;摩根大通(JPMorgan&nbsp;&nbsp;Chase)经济学家吴向红认为，无论是中国机电产品还是低端消费品，7月份出口都有所增长，这表明在全球经济增长放缓的背景下，中国出口仍具有竞争力。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;数据显示，前7个月，中国机电产品出口4642.2亿美元，增长25.7%，占同期出口总值的57.8%，比去年同期提高了1.4个百分点。尽管传统大宗商品出口增长呈现放缓迹象，但前7个月，纺织纱线、织物及制品出口378.7亿美元，同比增长24.4%，加快11.9个百分点。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></P> <P><FONT color=#000000><STRONG>德银：7月CPI升幅下降或导致中国进一步放松信贷</STRONG><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;德意志银行(Deutsche&nbsp;&nbsp;Bank)经济学家马骏表示，虽然中国生产者价格指数(PPI)加速上升，但消费者价格指数(CPI)升幅下降可能会导致银行信贷额度于今年晚些时候进一步放宽；他还预计未来数月内通货膨胀状况将进一步缓和。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;他预计8月份CPI将上升5.5%。中国7月份CPI较上年同期上升6.3%，升幅低于市场预期的6.6%；6月份的升幅为7.1%。<BR></FONT></P> <P><FONT color=#000000><STRONG>雷曼兄弟：预期未来数月CPI将继续回落</STRONG><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;雷曼兄弟(LehmanBrothers)中国首席经济学家孙明春发布研究报告表示，中国的PPI数据无法很好地预示CPI未来情况。预期未来数月内，CPI指数将继续回落。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;孙明春在报告中指出，虽然很多人认为上扬的PPI数据是CPI数据的先行指标，但我们认为这更多的是对利润率而不是对CPI造成压力。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;孙明春认为，在产能过剩问题逐渐显现的当前环境下，中国的PPI数据无法很好地预示CPI的未来走势。随著食品价格通胀因供给增加而趋缓，他预期未来数月CPI涨幅将继续回落。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;另一方面，近期原油和其他大宗商品价格的回落也会缓解PPI面临的压力。“如果这一趋势持续下去，PPI可能在7月份就已经见顶。然而，鉴于PPI涨幅将在一段时间里继续高于CPI涨幅，我们预期企业的利润率将在未来几个月里继续被挤压。</FONT></P> <P><B><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106545"><FONT color=#000000>http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106545</FONT></A></B></P> <P><B><FONT color=#000000></FONT></B>&nbsp;</P> <P><FONT style="FONT-SIZE: 16px"><FONT color=#0000ff><B>4</B><B>、国内券商对</B><B>7</B><B>月份</B><B>CPI</B><B>数据的看法</B></FONT></FONT></P> <P><FONT color=#000000><STRONG>中银国际：PPI高企预示中国通胀暂时还不会结束</STRONG></FONT></P> <P><FONT size=3>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </FONT><FONT size=1>中银国际最新发布的报告称，中国工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)高于预期可能预示著中国的通胀暂时还不会结束。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;报告称，7月居民消费价格指数(CPI)和工业品出厂价格指数之间、生产资料价格指数与制造价格指数之间的差距有所扩大；但是高涨的制造指数表明原材料端的价格上涨压力已经逐步向生产一端传导。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;报告称，制造商还没有完全将投入成本的上升转嫁给下游消费者；因此工业利润无疑会缩窄。展望未来，虽然工业品出厂价格指数和原材料、燃料和动力购进价格指数可能只是在短期内处于高位；但是制造业(包括衣著和日用品)的价格可能会随著价格压力从原材料端转移至制造端而继续上涨。这样的过渡效应将导致居民消费价格指数在可预见的未来一直处于相对较高的水平。</FONT></P> <P><FONT size=+0>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></P> <P><STRONG>东方证券张扬：CPI回落与市场走势基本无关<BR></STRONG>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;国家统计局公布CPI数据，7月份居民消费价格总水平同比上涨6.3%。第一时间就CPI回落对市场的影响连线了东方证券宏观分析师张扬先生，请他谈了自己的看法。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;张扬先生表示，7月份CPI同比上涨6.3%完全符合市场预期。并且CPI持续回落的趋势会延续下去，预计8月份CPI将回落到5.5%左右，8月份之后CPI&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;走势虽难以准确评估，目前来看CPI高峰已经逐渐过去。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;针对市场走势和CPI回落之间的关系，张扬先生认为，高通货膨胀对股市是利空，但CPI回落和市场走势基本没有关系，正常的CPI数据对于市场而言是中性的。目前来看，市场再次出现深幅下跌的原因是信心缺失，市场重拾升势的前提是要有信心。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;张扬先生还认为，PPI向CPI传导的可能性并不大，原因在于国内生产资料的价格和国际价格联系较大，PPI高企可以理解，然而国内食品等价格相对国际而言较独立，PPI向CPI传导会很缓慢。一般认为国内CPI上涨主要源于结构性通货膨胀，虽然现在流动性仍然充沛，但对CPI影响已经显著减小。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;张扬先生认为在可预期的范围内股市已经对宏观经济作了相对充分的反映，市场的下跌受宏观经济悲观预期影响较小，主要来源于投资信心的缺失。<BR></P> <P><STRONG>海通证券张崎：CPI走低利好股市</STRONG><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;海通证券分析师张崎认为，上半年CPI同比增长7.9%，但5月和6月数据呈现下降趋势，7月CPI进一步下降至6.3%，符合市场预期。由于去年5月以后CPI持续走高，今年5月以来的同比数据趋于下降是正常的。此外，近期国际油价明显下降，其他一些大宗生产资料价格也趋于回落，这样国内物价上涨压力有所减轻，预计7月以后CPI将继续维持下降态势，下半年CPI可能控制在6%以内。加息被认为是控制通胀的手段之一，如果CPI呈下降趋势，则央行加息的必要性也会随之降低。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;张崎表示，对于股市来说，CPI走低属于利好消息，但由于近期市场对利好麻木，所以此时更重要的是重新树立投资信心，在操作上宜持有具有基本面支持的超跌绩优股，长风破浪会有时，直挂云帆寄沧海，相信市场一定会好起来。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</P> <P><STRONG>海通证券李明亮：CPI总体回落趋势不会改变</STRONG><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;海通证券高级宏观分析师&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;李明亮：CPI涨幅回落程度稍稍超出我们的预期，一方面是受猪肉等价格上涨放缓，食品类的价格涨势回落比较明显，另外一个因素是去年下半年的翘尾因素有所减弱。我们也看到非食品价格同比涨幅仍在稳步提高，这与上游产品价格的传导有关，不过对总体CPI并不会构成多大的压力，因为下游产品价格同时受到政府管制措施和供求关系制约。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;今年接下来的时间，CPI总体回落趋势不会改变。而如果天气没有极端变化(对秋粮收成的影响)，粮价也没有大涨的可能性，对CPI的推动作用有限。鉴于CPI处于逐步回落通道，加息暂时没有必要出台，不过通胀压力还是很大，而且这是以资源品价格未放开为代价的，估计政府今年内也很难完全放开价格，但做一些小范围的调整还是可能的，基调是渐进式的。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</P> <P><STRONG>&nbsp;西南证券闫莉：CPI数据好于预期&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;弱势格局仍将延续</STRONG><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;西南证券高级分析师闫莉女士表示，今天出炉的CPI数据应该来说是好于之前6.5-6.7%的预期的，特别是结合6月CPI数据来看也是连续两个月呈现下降趋势，这对市场来说应该是一个利好的消息。但是目前市场的人气比较低迷，投资者对于一些利好消息心态淡漠，而对于利空消息又表现出过于担心的情绪，这也造成了近期市场一再下跌的原因。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;在谈到昨天公布的PPI数据创出新高时，闫莉女士表示这与今天公布的CPI数据是相对背离的，PPI高涨意味着上游行业的压力依然较大，由于传导效应的存在，下游行业产生压力依然得不到有效的缓解，所以说市场对于这两个数据仍然是非常担心，只有说等PPI与CPI数据的走向相一致，且同步下落的时候，这样市场的预期才能从根本上得到好转。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;对于近期市场的走势和后市的展望，闫莉女士也表示出一定的担忧，认为在这种低迷的行情下，弱势格局在短期内仍将延续。</P> <P>&nbsp;&nbsp;</P> <P><STRONG>招商证券宏观分析师胡鲁滨：经济增速下滑的态势不变</STRONG><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;这个数据比想象的要低，根据测算，经过季节调整的7月CPI环比折年率(这一数据反映真正由消费需求推动的物价上涨程度)仅为2%，从今年3月以来这种比较低的状态就开始持续了，这和经济面的一些情况相符合，例如汽车销售等，反映了最终消费需求的下降。PPI的情况还是比较好，反映生产还是比较旺盛，但经济增速下滑的态势不变。目前的CPI得到有效控制，但PPI仍创新高。从历史数据看，一般PPI会在半年时间里反映到CPI。因此，国家控制通胀的政策不会大幅放松，但也不会加大货币政策的紧缩力度，财政政策将发挥更大作用。</P>]]> 星期三, 13 八月 2008 05:46:44 GMT http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3537248.html 2008-08-13T05:46:44Z 手握五大行业话事权 关注龙头公司 http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3532442.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN><STRONG><FONT size=1><FONT color=#ff0000>手握五大行业话事权<FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT>关注龙头公司<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></FONT></FONT></STRONG></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT color=#009999><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&nbsp;&nbsp; 物价飞涨的年代，什么都在提价，可是带头提价还能不失市场的公司却少之又少</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">——</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">拥有独家资源，也许就能实现。</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><BR></SPAN><FONT color=#009999><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　自今年年初贵州茅台</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(600519)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">再次上调茅台酒出厂价格</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">20</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">％之后，贵州茅台</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(600519)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">今年一季度主营业务收入达</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">19.93</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元，较上年同期的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">15.88</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元增长了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">25.5%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，实现净利润</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8.73</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元，同比增长</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">63%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><BR></SPAN><FONT color=#009999><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　事实上，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2006</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年以来茅台已经提价数番，每次提价幅度均在</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">15%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">以上，而数次提价后产品销量不降反升。贵州茅台因此被某券商称之为定价权为王时代的标杆。</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><FONT color=#009999>　　茅台占有的环境资源和产品资源优势以及此二者所带来的品牌优势使其在行业内拥有独一无二的地位，不会因为价格的细微变化而使消费者产生替代效应。</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><FONT color=#009999>　　与之相似，采掘、医药、食品饮料、餐饮旅游、有色金属等行业也往往因为资源优势而拥有强势定价权。</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><FONT color=#009999>采掘行业：中国神华</FONT></SPAN><FONT color=#009999><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(601088)<BR></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2007</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年公司煤炭产量和销售量分别达到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">158</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">百万吨和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">209.1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">百万吨，是我国最大的煤炭生产企业和销售企业。至</SPAN><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="31" Month="12" Year="2007"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2007</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">31</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，神华可采储量为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">114.82</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿吨，资源量为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">180.24</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿吨，为国内最多。</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><BR></SPAN><FONT color=#009999><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　神华</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2007</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年内销加权平均价为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">301.8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，相比</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2006</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">296.1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨上涨</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1.9%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">；出口价格为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">398.1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">吨，相比较</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2006</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">381.6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元每吨涨幅为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.3%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。但是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2007</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年度神华集团煤炭总销量为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">209.1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">百万吨，相比较</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2006</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">171.1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">百万吨同比增长了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">22.2%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。所有的提价均未影响到销量。</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><BR></SPAN><FONT color=#009999><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　医药行业：云南白药</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(000538)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、东阿阿胶</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(000423)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">等</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><BR></SPAN><FONT color=#009999><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　云南白药：云南素有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">药材之乡，药物宝库</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">之称，云南白药近十年来屡屡提价的动力正是来自于这种地缘优势以及白药产品的独特疗效与不可复制性，因为无论是工艺流程还是配方均属于国家绝密，云南白药秘方是两个国家一类中药保护品种之一，公司的盈利能力能够得到有效保障。</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="6" Month="12" Year="2005"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2005</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，云南白药宣布</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">种主要产品提价，增幅为</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">14-20%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，这给公司带来了至少</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1200</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万元的净利润。</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><BR></SPAN><FONT color=#009999><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　东阿阿胶：东阿阿胶具有较高的垄断优势，作为阿胶原材料的驴皮资源在目前国内甚至世界范围内极其短缺，近年来，东阿阿胶在全国建立</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">13</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个驴皮等中药材生产供应基地，首创以指纹图纹技术对阿胶原料、成品进行真伪鉴别和生产过程质量控制，公司产业链进一步完整和成熟，同时公司将借此抢占上游资源，定价权明显提升。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">2006</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年公司产品的价格大幅度上调，主导产品阿胶块和复方阿胶浆产品的零售价分别提高了</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">30</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">％和</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">20</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">％，其中阿胶块出厂价和终端价同时上调</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">30</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">％。</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><BR></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt"><BR></SPAN><FONT color=#009999><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　</SPAN></FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106055"><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=#ff0000 size=1>http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=106055</FONT></A></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman" color=#ff0000 size=3>&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>]]> 星期二, 12 八月 2008 05:57:04 GMT http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3532442.html 2008-08-12T05:57:04Z 股市早早报 http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3531298.html <![CDATA[ <DIV><FONT face=宋体 color=#ff0000 size=3><STRONG>股市早早报</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=宋体 color=#339999><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>1中投证券-香港市场研究：恒指全周报跌，银行业绩有喜有悲<BR></FONT></STRONG>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 受到台风的影响上周三香港停市一天，但在四天的交易日里，恒指受多个利空的因素及消息所影响，改变了前两周连续上升的气势，全周累计下跌977.39&nbsp; 点，是近八周以来最大的周跌幅。<BR>美联储一如外界预期维持利率2%不变，会后的议息声明并没有为外界带来了什么启示，声明只是指出通胀升温的风险和经济放缓一样，都是联储局重要关注的，从声明中可以看出联储局对未来经济走势的预期没有明确方向。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 上周有四家银行发报了08&nbsp; 年中期业绩的表现，分别是汇控、恒生、渣打和东亚，其中最为瞩目的是汇控。汇控上半年纯利同比下降29%，只有77.2&nbsp; 亿美元，减值拨备同比上升了58%，达到10,058&nbsp; 百万美元。若失业率持续上升及房价下跌，汇控手里的按揭抵押债券和债务抵押债券，可能成为影响下半年业务的一个重要原因。至于其余三家银行，上半年的业绩则表现不一。<BR>在经济低迷和预期增长偏低的环境下，投资风险相对较高，投资者要在市场上觅得资金十分困难。环球市场信贷紧缩，资金成本上升，银行藉此扩大息差，以增加借贷收入及保证贷款者的还款能力。但是在吸纳存款的一面，银行间的竞争也将更加激烈，存款息差亦会收窄继而为银行带来压力。<BR></FONT><FONT face=宋体 color=#339999></DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=宋体 color=#339999><FONT color=#0000ff size=1><STRONG>2 中金公司-房地产：重点城市商品房成交量周报<BR></STRONG></FONT>&nbsp;&nbsp; 周成交量回顾：<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp; 本周16&nbsp; 个城市总体周成交量环比均值下降10%，中值下降8%。年初至今累计成交量跌幅均值为28%，中值约为35%。成交量在上周经历短暂反弹后重回跌势，我们认为未来成交量仍将维持疲弱态势。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp; 主要区域成交量简析：<BR>环渤海：北京、天津、济南和青岛周成交量分别环比下降32%、5%、3%和10%。<BR>长三角：上海、南京和苏州周成交量环比下降6%、40%和27%。杭州周成交量环比小幅上升2%。<BR>珠三角：深圳周成交量环比小幅上升2%，广州周成交量环比下降17%。<BR>其它：&nbsp; 受新购房合同实施影响，重庆周成交量环比上升58%，成都、武汉和长沙周成交量分别环比下降5%、30%和24%。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp; 未来成交量展望：我们认为季节性因素以及宏观经济的走弱影响行业未来一个季度的走势，时间换空间是此轮调整的主要模式，所以我们认为未来一二个月成交量将延续弱势。<BR></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=宋体 color=#339999><FONT color=#0000ff size=1><STRONG>3联合证券-汽车行业：刻舟求剑-国际汽车股长期收益与估值水平研究<BR></STRONG></FONT>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 本轮高通胀及宏观经济减速导致得汽车行业景气下滑仍未有见底迹象，观察行业盈利变化走势，看起来最坏的一面也尚未展示。比照成熟市场汽车股周期下行期间的表现，我们认为A&nbsp; 股市场汽车股估值水平仍有下探空间，战略性增持机会有必要继续等待。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 从国际市场长期走势表现看，汽车股中仅有少数企业能够长期连续超越市场，把握阶段性的机会可能是投资汽车股比较好的策略。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 短期内股价的涨跌受到许多因素的影响，但长期股价的变化还是由于盈利变化所致。汽车在盈利连续快速增长的初期和扭亏为盈这两个阶段有很大机会获得超额收益。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 估值水平的变化从长期看跟随了EPS&nbsp; 增长率的变化方向。在增长率不断升高时，估值水平会一路走高；而增长率陷于停滞或回落时，估值会快速回落。静态PE&nbsp; 水平个股中枢值差距很大。静态PB&nbsp; 相较静态PE&nbsp; 更加稳定。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 不同市场间汽车公司享有的估值水平有很大差异，但高增长均带来高估值，某些时段估值甚至达到惊人的水平，但是在盈利下滑甚至负增长阶段，PE水平会通常会下滑到非常低的水平。估值水平的长期中枢通常在5~15&nbsp; 倍之间，其中商用车公司的估值水平会更高一些。大部分公司的PB&nbsp; 水平则主要在1.5&nbsp; 倍~4&nbsp; 倍之间波动。 <BR></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=宋体 color=#339999><FONT color=#0000ff size=1><STRONG>4中金公司-策略周报</STRONG></FONT><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 上周股指全线大幅下跌，市场憧憬已久“前奥运反弹行情”的幻想也终于被奥运开幕当日股指的暴跌彻底击碎。越来越多的投资者意识到经济放缓和企业盈利增速回落的趋势已经无可避免。也正如我们上周周报提到的，能源和大宗商品价格面临周期性压力，全球经济已由“高增长带动物价加速上升”转向“高物价压抑经济增长”。从不少央行的态度来看，对增长的担忧已经超过了对通胀的忧虑。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 中国经济面临的问题恐怕更为复杂，近期发电量增速的明显回落主要并不是需求放缓因所致，而更多是供给瓶颈因素（奥运环保、节能减排、价格管制等）所致。PPI&nbsp; 和CPI&nbsp; 的持续倒挂现象则说明了这一点。如果未来供给瓶颈无法缓解，保持物价稳定只能依靠需求的回落来解决，于是又回到通胀与增长抉择的老问题上来。在这种情况下实质性的宏调松动也言之尚早。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 我们总体仍建议投资者谨慎控制仓位，区间交易为主。但考虑到A/H&nbsp; 溢价率水平已经回落至30%以内，钢铁、水泥、银行、保险等权重股股价上已出现明显倒挂，海外市场反弹可能短期内拉动A&nbsp; 股，关注上述个股的交易机会。<BR></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=宋体 color=#339999><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>5融通基金对0808市场大幅调整的观点0809</FONT></STRONG><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 今日市场在午盘之后，受深成指创出新低的连带影响，两市在尾盘出现放量下跌，最终上证综合指数收盘下跌4.47%，沪深300指数下跌4.74%。从板块来看，各版块均出现不同程度的深幅下跌，地产、有色金属、旅游酒店跌幅靠前，煤炭石油和ST板块相对抗跌。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 本次深幅下跌一方面源于技术性的抛售，另一方面则是投资者对后市政策不明朗依然保持担忧。从盘面来看，周三、周四的走势有很多相似点，无论机构或是散户投资者一直持观望态度，两市成交量一直处于地量水平，今日午盘之前，走势与前两日也大致相似，但由于缺乏足够的增量进场资金，市场最终在出现恐慌性抛盘带动下再次以较低的成交量创下巨大跌幅。<BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 对于后市，我们认为今日的市场表现更多来自于技术层面，在估值相对合理，通胀压力逐渐缓解的背景下，市场继续深幅下跌的空间已然不足。由于前期市场的较差表现，投资者信心遭受严重损伤，短时间恢复也有较大困难，因此我们判断市场在短时间内向上向下的空间不大，维持震荡整理格局。我们依然秉有一贯的观点：真正基于基本面的反弹或反转，需要等到下半年政府开始明确采取放松宏观调控政策的时候，而以上假设的前提是通货膨胀得到有效抑制，经济增速明显放缓。<BR></FONT></DIV>]]> 星期二, 12 八月 2008 01:30:35 GMT http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3531298.html 2008-08-12T01:30:35Z 股市下午茶 http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3528366.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">股市下午茶</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT size=3><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #3366ff; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="COLOR: #3366ff; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">关注维稳行情中的</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #3366ff; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="COLOR: #3366ff; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">四大家族</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: #3366ff; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></B></FONT></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">近期市场呈现明显的窄幅震荡、缩量调整的弱市格局，市场似乎变成了一潭死水，对于投资老手而言，不怕牛市，不怕熊市，就怕</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">没市</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">"</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。对接近一条直线的市情，很多人选择观望。但以我个人的经验，在低迷的时期，往往却正是观察出潜在牛股和转折性行业的好时候。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;<BR></FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　根据新东风无忧价值网行业统计，最近一个月中，只有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个行业在逆市上涨，其中便包括占全部市值</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">50.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">％的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">四大家族</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，即银行、石油、证券保险及石化。这</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">四大家族</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">总共涉及的公司只有</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">37</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家。因此，近期每当行情告急时，都能看到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">四大家族</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">发力的身影。而超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">62</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">行业最近一个月以来都处于下跌状态，因此股市表面的平稳并不能掩盖绝大多数投资者亏损的现状，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">37</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家公司呈现强势状态是无法带给市场盈利效应的，维稳行情也消融了大部分活跃资金的做市信心。一个月以来四大家族的表现情况见下表：</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;<BR>&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">行业</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">公司数</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">加权股价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">一月涨跌</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">总市值份额</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">一个月资金流向</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;<BR>1&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">银行</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;14&nbsp;&nbsp;5.87&nbsp;&nbsp;1.97%&nbsp;&nbsp;25.61%&nbsp;&nbsp;39%&nbsp;&nbsp;<BR>2&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">石油天然气开采</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;3&nbsp;&nbsp;14.94&nbsp;&nbsp;0.67%&nbsp;&nbsp;12.31%&nbsp;&nbsp;38%&nbsp;&nbsp;<BR>3&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">证券保险</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;13&nbsp;&nbsp;25.9&nbsp;&nbsp;0.75%&nbsp;&nbsp;7.70%&nbsp;&nbsp;87%&nbsp;&nbsp;<BR>4&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">石化</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;7&nbsp;&nbsp;11.42&nbsp;&nbsp;15.96%&nbsp;&nbsp;4.92%&nbsp;&nbsp;57%&nbsp;&nbsp;<BR>“</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">四大家族</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">”</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">市值份额及一月表现</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">06</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年、</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">07</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年是</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">A</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">股融资超过发展的两年，一批大型巨无霸级公司上市。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">07</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">IPO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">融资全球第一、超过</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4500</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元，原寄希望于大盘股的上市能够起到稳定市场的作用，结果非但没有稳定市场，反而引起市场更大幅的波动，加剧蓝筹泡沫。从新东风统计还可看到，上述四大家族尤其是银行最近一个月的资金流向，都远远低于市场的平均水平，也就是说少量的资金就可以撬动这四大权重板块。从这个意义上讲，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">A</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">股指数被操纵是相当容易的，股指期货在这种不均衡的条件下推出，无疑蕴含巨大的系统性风险。基于股指结构风险考虑，我们应该给股指期货好好地泼泼冷水。这种情况下，匆忙推出股指期货，一定会给本来就够乱的中国股市再添一把乱。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></FONT></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman"></FONT></o:p></SPAN></P><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><A href="http://www.microbell.com/news_list.asp?"><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><SPAN lang=EN-US>更多最新资讯</SPAN></SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman">…</FONT></FONT></A><SPAN style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P></DIV>]]> 星期一, 11 八月 2008 06:09:39 GMT http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3528366.html 2008-08-11T06:09:39Z 股市内幕资讯 http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3527767.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">股市内幕资讯</SPAN></B><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; COLOR: red"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #3366ff"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #3366ff; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">警惕！机构疯狂抛售</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #3366ff"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT></SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #3366ff; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">大高位增发股</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #3366ff"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">牛熊两重天，一年前许多高位增发的股票目前迎来解禁潮。在今年</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">A</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">股市场大幅走低的背景下，一些增发股目前价格仅有增发价格的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">50%~70%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，而参与增发的各机构只好忍痛割爱，作出认赔出场的决定。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Topview</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">数据显示，在</SPAN><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2008" Month="7" Day="23" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">23</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2008" Month="8" Day="5" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个交易日里，增发板块被各路投资者疯狂卖出</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">80.7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2008" Month="7" Day="4" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><SPAN lang=EN-US>月</SPAN></SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman">4</FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，金地集团</SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman">(600383)1.73</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿定向增发股份解禁，解禁当日收盘</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8.38</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元，较增发价已跌去近四成；</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2008" Month="8" Day="14" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">14</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，天音控股</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(000829)2405</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万定向增发股份解禁，目前该股</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5.11</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元股价已跌去增发价近七成之多。同方股份</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">(600100)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">自</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2008" Month="8" Day="1" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">1</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">定向增发股解禁以来，股价也没有回到</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">23.2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元的定向增发价格，到上周五收盘时已经跌至</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">18.52</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Topview</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">数据显示同方股份从</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2008" Month="7" Day="23" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">23</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">以来的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个交易日被大量卖出达</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">4.21</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元之多。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><BR><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2008" Month="8" Day="15" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><SPAN lang=EN-US>月</SPAN></SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman">15</FONT><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><SPAN lang=EN-US>日</SPAN></SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，中信证券</SPAN><FONT face="Times New Roman">(600030)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">将迎来</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5.936</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿股限售股解禁（包括增发的</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.3373</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿股）。以昨天复权价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">45.32</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元计算，已跌去增发价</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">74.91</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">元的四成，其股价在经历</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">、</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月的连续大跌之后，近</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个交易日再次出现抛售潮，</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">Topview</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">数据显示，从</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2008" Month="7" Day="23" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">23</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到</SPAN><st1:chsdate w:st="on" Year="2008" Month="8" Day="5" IsLunarDate="False" IsROCDate="False"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日</SPAN></st1:chsdate><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，中信证券是增发板块中被卖出最多的股票，共被卖出</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><FONT face="Times New Roman">9.81</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿元。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">上述股票之所以在一年禁售期内发生如此大的变化，根本原因就在于宏观环境转变令其所处的行业前景不再被看好，或者是公司本身经营的问题。另外，在目前信心缺乏的市场环境下，投资者要想在中短期时间内，从被深套的增发股票中解脱出来非常之难，因此，多数投资者选择了离场观望。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 22.5pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5">&nbsp;</P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 22.5pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #339966"><o:p><FONT face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</FONT></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.35pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.5"><B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt"><A href="http://www.microbell.com/docdetail.asp?id=105705"><FONT size=3><SPAN lang=EN-US style="COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><SPAN lang=EN-US>更多最新资讯</SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: red"><FONT face="Times New Roman">…</FONT></SPAN></FONT></A><o:p></o:p></SPAN></B></P></DIV>]]> 星期一, 11 八月 2008 03:41:41 GMT http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3527767.html 2008-08-11T03:41:41Z 股市早早报（8月11日周一） http://blog.china.com/u/080118/113725/200808/3527112.html <![CDATA[ <DIV> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 18pt; COLOR: red; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">股市早早报（<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chsdate w:st="on" IsROCDate="False" IsLunarDate="False" Day="11" Month="8" Year="2008"><SPAN lang=EN-US>8</SPAN>月<SPAN lang=EN-US>11</SPAN>日</st1:chsdate>周一）</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"> <SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #0066ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: #0066ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN></B><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">中金公司<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>中国经济<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>国务院通过修订版《外汇管理条例》</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">一：新《条例》新在哪里？<SPAN lang=EN-US>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <SPAN style="BACKGROUND: white"><BR></SPAN></SPAN></SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; BACKGROUND: white; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">1.&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; BACKGROUND: white; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">新条例为政府未来出台外汇管制措施应对资金外流局面提供了政策支持，对“热钱”流入发出警告。新《条例》新增第十一条规定：“当国际收支出现或者可能出现严重失衡，以及国民经济出现或者可能出现严重危机时，国家可以对国际收支采取必要的保障、控制等措施”。这给政府未来出台外汇管制措施应对资金外流局面提供了政策支持，可被视为对“热钱”流入发出的警告。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>2.&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN>新条例加强对跨境资金流动的监测：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1).&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN>要求经常项目外汇收支应具有真实和合法的交易基础；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2).&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN>要求资本项目外汇和结汇资金应按照批准的用途使用；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3).&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN>明确和细化了外汇管理机关的检查手段和措施；<SPAN lang=EN-US>4).&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN>增加对外汇资金非法流入、非法结汇和违法流向等行为的处罚规定。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>3</SPAN>．新条例“严进宽出”，加强资本流出的可控性，以改善国际收支失衡：<SPAN lang=EN-US>1).&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN>新《条例》取消了境内企业经常项目外汇收入强制结汇的要求，允许企业将外汇收入存放境外；<SPAN lang=EN-US>2).</SPAN>允许外国企业来华发行股票，为将来可控地拓宽资本流出渠道预留政策空间；<SPAN lang=EN-US>3).&nbsp;&nbsp;</SPAN>新《条例》简化了对境外直接投资的行政审批程序。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">二：新《条例》的影响？</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; BACKGROUND: white; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; BACKGROUND: white; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">全球经济再平衡已使得中国外汇储备增长放缓，而新《条例》将在一定程度上加快这种减缓。新条例对于外汇“严进宽出”，体现了改进国际收支平衡的意愿。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; BACKGROUND: white; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; BACKGROUND: white; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">尽管方向上正确，但我们认为其如能早几年就出台则能起到更大的作用，原因在于，当时全球经济失衡不断恶化，中国国际收支失衡，人民币升值预期高企，吸引国际资金加速流入。但这一阶段已经结束，目前全球经济已进入再平衡的调整时期，伴随着美国消费放缓，中国贸易顺差已经进入拐点开始缩窄（图<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>），所谓“热钱”的涌入也显著减少（图<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>），因此外汇储备增长放缓。<SPAN lang=EN-US>&nbsp; </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; BACKGROUND: white; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">而新《条例》的给政府未来采取外汇管制以应对大量资金外流提供了政策上的支持，可被视为对“热钱”流入发出的警告，国际投机资金涌入中国的动力或将进一步减弱。因此，全球经济再平衡已使得中国外汇储备增长开始放缓，而新《条例》将在一定程度上加快这种减缓。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; BACKGROUND: white; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 36pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-char-indent-count: 3.6" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;</SPAN><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">2</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">联合证券<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>金色财富</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">本期观点：选择用脚投票究竟是对是错</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">与上周大量充斥市场维稳声音不同，本周高层护市言论集体失语。今天晚上是奥运会正式开幕，投资者期盼政策利好的耐心也等到了极限，在早晨没有任何交易型利好的渗透下，许多投资者黯然离场，这种蝴蝶效应在下午更是助推众多观望者的跟进杀跌。对于敏感时期大家选择观望进而离场本无可厚非，另一方面笔者却对本周维稳集体失音也充满了一丝幻想，也许管理层过去只说不做是否在下周会只做不说呢？不论怎样，目前考虑本金安全最为关键，操作策略至少应该减仓<SPAN lang=EN-US>30%-50%</SPAN>。在市场与管理层博弈的过程中今日逼宫的意图极为明显，在这场风波中避免遭遇到不说也不做的系统风险，适当采取防御策略不妨是一种最优选择。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 45pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-char-indent-count: 4.5" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;</SPAN><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">3</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: blue; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">渤海证券<SPAN lang=EN-US>-</SPAN>电力设备行业策略报告</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;</SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">发电设备子行业出现分化</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 07</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">年发电设备增速出现回落，其中火电相关设备增速明显放缓，虽然出口带来新的增长点，但短期不能弥补国内需求下滑产生的缺口，预计景气周期见顶。水电、核电等行业在政策的支持下，仍然保持高景气。<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR>&#1048698;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>风电设备延续高景气，多晶硅“蜜月”或将过去<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN>在政策、利益驱动下，风电建设在整个“十一五”期间仍将保持高速发展，从事整机生产的行业龙头企业以及议价能力强的关键零部件供应商将受益于风电行业的爆发式增长。光伏产业虽然前途看好，但多晶硅近期产能扩张速度超过了需求增长的速度，价格预期下滑。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;</SPAN><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">输配电行业气上升<SPAN lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN></SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">未来加大输配电领域投资是我国电力工业长期发展的必然趋势，受益于电网投资持续增加，输配电产品的收入和利润继续保持快速增长。与此同时，国内输配电企业在经历了由“市场换技术”到“自主创新”的转变过程后，竞争力逐渐增强，市场份额逐渐提升。</SPAN><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P> <P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><B><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">“节能减排”的压力和市场机遇</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: #6633ff; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">电力工业是能源消耗和污染物排放的大户。电力工业中落实“节能减排”政策的主要措施是在发电、输变电和用电领域推广具有明显节能减排效果的先进电力设备。